Posted

December 06, 2010 06:48:53 AM

Date

2010-10

Author

Gupta, Abhishek

Affiliation

Johns Hopkins University

Title

A Forecasting Metric for Evaluating DSGE Models for Policy Analysis

Summary /
Abstract

This paper evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models from the standpoint of their usefulness in doing monetary policy analysis. The paper isolates features most relevant for monetary policymaking and uses the diagnostic tools of posterior predictive analysis to evaluate these features. The paper provides a diagnosis of the observed flaws in the model with regards to these features that helps in identifying the structural flaws in the model. The paper finds that model misspecification causes certain pairs of structural shocks in the model to be correlated in order to fit the observed data.

Keywords

Posterior predictive analysis; DSGE; Monetary Policy; Forecast Errors; Model Evaluation

URL

http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26718/1/MPRA_paper_26718.pdf

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