Posted
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August 14, 2014 11:39:39 AM |
Date
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2014-08 |
Author
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Ray C. Fair |
Affiliation
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Cowles Foundation, Department of Economics, Yale University |
Title
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How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty? |
Summary / Abstract
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An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration. |
Keywords
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Central bank; uncertainty; stochastic simulation |
URL
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http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2014-27/version_1/count
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See
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More articles ...
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