Posted

August 14, 2014 11:39:39 AM

Date

2014-08

Author

Ray C. Fair

Affiliation

Cowles Foundation, Department of Economics, Yale University

Title

How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?

Summary /
Abstract

An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.

Keywords

Central bank; uncertainty; stochastic simulation

URL

http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2014-27/version_1/count

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