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Record ID
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619
[ Page 8 of 68, No. 1 ]
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Date
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2015-07 |
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Author
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Michal Andrle ; Michael Kumhof ; Douglas Laxton ; Dirk Muir
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Affiliation
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Research Department, IMF |
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Title
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Banks in The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model |
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Summary /
Abstract
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The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy and scenario analysis. This paper compares two versions of GIMF, GIMF with a conventional financial accelerator, where bank balance sheets do not play a prominent role, and GIMF with both a financial accelerator and a fully specified banking sector that can make lending losses, and that is regulated according to Basel-III. We illustrate the comparative macroeconomic properties of both models by presenting their responses to a wide range of fiscal, demand, supply and financial shocks. |
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Keywords
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Multi-Region DSGE Models, Financial Accelerator, Macro-Financial Linkages, Macroprudential Policy |
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URL
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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15150.pdf
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Record ID
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618
[ Page 8 of 68, No. 2 ]
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Date
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2015-07 |
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Author
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Elsie Addo Awadzi
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Affiliation
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Legal Department, IMF |
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Title
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Designing Legal Frameworks for Public Debt Management |
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Summary /
Abstract
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Sustainable public debt has gained renewed attention as countries implement fiscal consolidation measures in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Sound public debt policies and debt management practices require robust legal underpinnings. Complex legal issues however arise in the design of the legal framework, and tradeoffs are required in many instances. This paper analyzes key features of modern public debt management legal frameworks, drawing from examples in advanced, emerging, and frontier markets. It aims to provide guidance for countries that seek to review and strengthen their public debt management legal frameworks. |
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Keywords
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National Debt; Government loans and guarantees; Sovereign Debt ; Debt management, Legal framework for Public Debt Management |
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URL
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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15147.pdf
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Record ID
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617
[ Page 8 of 68, No. 3 ]
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Date
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2015-04 |
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Author
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Prepared by staff from the Fiscal Affairs Department supervised by Sanjeev Gupta, comprising a team
led by Bernardin Akitoby and Abdelhak Senhadji, and including Eva Jenkner, Rossen Rozenov, Mark De Broeck, Todd Mattina, Santiago Acosta - Ormaechea, David Amaglobeli, Mai Anh Bui, Serhan Cevik, Carolina Correa, Valerio Crispolti, Jeff Danforth, Salvatore De ll’Erba, Andrew Hodge, Takuji Komatsuzaki, Jimmy McHugh, Jeta Menkulasi, Florian Misch, Tigran Poghosyan, Ivohasina Razafimahefa, John Ricco, Nancy Tinoza, Andreas Tudyka. Production assistance was provided by Juliana Peña, Patricia Quiros, Macarena Torres Girao, and Maria Tramuttola
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Affiliation
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Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF |
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Title
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IMF Policy Paper: Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth |
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Summary /
Abstract
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This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model. |
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Keywords
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Fiscal Policy, Long-Term Growth |
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URL
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http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2015/042015.pdf
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Record ID
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616
[ Page 8 of 68, No. 4 ]
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Date
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2015-06 |
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Author
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Dimitri G. Demekas
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Affiliation
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Money and Capital Markets Department, IMF |
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Title
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Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests: Progress So Far and the Way Forward |
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Summary /
Abstract
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Giving stress tests a macroprudential perspective requires (i) incorporating general equilibrium dimensions, so that the outcome of the test depends not only on the size of the shock and the buffers of individual institutions but also on their behavioral responses and their interactions with each other and with other economic agents; and (ii) focusing on the resilience of the system as a whole. Progress has been made toward the first goal: several models are now available that attempt to integrate solvency, liquidity, and other sources of risk and to capture some behavioral responses and feedback effects. But building models that measure correctly systemic risk and the contribution of individual institutions to it while, at the same time, relating the results to the established regulatory framework has proved more difficult. Looking forward, making macroprudential stress tests more effective would entail using a variety of analytical approaches and scenarios, integrating non-bank financial entities, and exploring the use of agent-based models. As well, macroprudential stress tests should not be used in isolation but be treated as complements to other tools and—crucially—be combined with microprudential perspectives. |
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Keywords
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Banks, financial stability , contagion, stress tests, systemic risk, solvency, liquidity |
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URL
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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15146.pdf
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Record ID
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615
[ Page 8 of 68, No. 5 ]
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Date
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2015-05 |
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Author
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Roberto Cardarelli and Lusine Lusinyan
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Affiliation
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Western Hemisphere Department, IMF |
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Title
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U.S. Total Factor Productivity Slowdown: Evidence from the U.S. States |
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Summary /
Abstract
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Working Paper No. 15/116: Author/Editor: Summary: Total factor productivity (TFP) growth began slowing in the United States in the mid-2000s, before the Great Recession. To many, the main culprit is the fading positive impact of the information technology (IT) revolution that took place in the 1990s. But our estimates of TFP growth across the U.S. states reveal that the slowdown in TFP was quite widespread and not particularly stronger in IT-producing states or in those with a relatively more intensive usage of IT. An alternative explanation offered in this paper is that the slowdown in U.S. TFP growth reflects a loss of efficiency or market dynamism over the last two decades. Indeed, there are large differences in production efficiency across U.S. states, with the states having better educational attainment and greater investment in R&D being closer to the production “frontier.” |
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Keywords
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Productivity, growth, stochast ic frontier analys is, U.S. states |
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URL
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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15116.pdf
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Record ID
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614
[ Page 8 of 68, No. 6 ]
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Date
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2015-05 |
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Author
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Wojciech Maliszewski and Longmei Zhang
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Affiliation
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Asia and Pacific Department, IMF |
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Title
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China’s Growth: Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears? |
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Summary /
Abstract
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The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the ‘finance-neutral’ gap—our measure of the financial cycle—is large and positive, reflecting imbalances accumulated in the economy since the Global Financial Crisis. A period of slower growth is therefore both likely and needed in the near term to restore the economy to equilibrium. In the medium term, growth will slow as China moves closer to the technology frontier, but a steadfast implementation of reforms can ensure that China follows the path of the “Asia Tigers” and achieves successful convergence to high-income status. |
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Keywords
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China, potential growth, total factor productivity, output gap |
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URL
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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15113.pdf
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Record ID
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613
[ Page 8 of 68, No. 7 ]
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Date
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2015-05 |
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Author
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Estelle X. Liu, Todd Mattina, and Tigran Poghosyan
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Affiliation
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Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF |
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Title
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Correcting “Beyond the Cycle:” Accounting for Asset Prices in Structural Fiscal Balances |
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Summary /
Abstract
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This paper outlines an operational approach for incorporating the impact of asset price cycles in the calculation of structural fiscal balances (SFBs). The global financial crisis demonstrated that movements in asset prices can have an important fiscal impact. Failing to account for the fiscal impact of asset price cycles can encourage a pro-cyclical policy stance if temporarily high revenues are passed through into expenditures. In addition, over-estimating the SFB may lead to inadequate fiscal buffers when cyclical revenues eventually dissipate. The paper proposes an empirical approach to correct for asset prices and provides illustrative country results for selected OECD countries. We find that asset price cycles are imperfectly synchronized with the business cycle and are quantitatively significant with an average pre-crisis fiscal impact ranging from about ½ to 2 percent of GDP in the sample. For a number of countries, the pre-crisis fiscal impact of high asset prices was larger at about 4 percent of GDP. |
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Keywords
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Structural fiscal balance, financial crisis, asset price, equity market, housing market, panel data econometrics |
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URL
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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15109.pdf
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Record ID
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612
[ Page 8 of 68, No. 8 ]
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Date
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2015-01 |
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Author
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Tarullo, Daniel K.
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Affiliation
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Member, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System |
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Title
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Advancing Macroprudential Policy Objectives : a speech At the Office of Financial Research and Financial Stability Oversight Council's 4th Annual Conference on Evaluating Macroprudential Tools: Complementarities and Conflicts, Arlington, Virginia, January 30, 2015 |
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Summary /
Abstract
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Good afternoon. I would like to start by thanking Charlie Steindel and the Forecasters Club of New York for their invitation to speak today. It is a particular pleasure for me to address your group: first, because I have known Charlie for many years – we both grew up as economists in the Federal Reserve System – but also because I know I won’t have to explain to you what a difficult task economic forecasting can be, even in the best of times. Still, forecasting is something economists and policymakers must do, so today I will discuss my outlook for the economy and monetary policy. As always, the views I’ll present are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee. |
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Keywords
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Macroprudential Policy Objectives |
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URL
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http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/tarullo20150130a.pdf
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Record ID
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610
[ Page 8 of 68, No. 10 ]
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Date
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2015-03 |
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Author
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Stanley Fischer
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Affiliation
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Vice Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System |
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Title
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Nonbank Financial Intermediation, Financial Stability, and the Road Forward |
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Summary /
Abstract
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A speech at the "Central Banking in the Shadows: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Post-Crisis," 20th Annual Financial Markets Conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Stone Mountain, Georgia, March 30, 2015. |
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Keywords
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Nonbank financial intermediation, Financial Stability, Post-Crisis, Shadow Banking |
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URL
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http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20150330a.pdf
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