Selected Reference and Reading Materials compiled by Dan Villanueva


Total records: 676 | Select no. of records per page: 10 | 20 | 30 | 50 | 100 | Show all | Search
Select a Page:   << Previous  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 Next >>


Record ID

386     [ Page 30 of 68, No. 1 ]

Date

2013-07

Author

John C. Williams

Affiliation

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Title

A defense of moderation in monetary policy

Summary /
Abstract

This paper examines the implications of uncertainty about the effects of monetary policy for optimal monetary policy with an application to the current situation. Using a stylized macroeconomic model, I derive optimal policies under uncertainty for both conventional and unconventional monetary policies. According to an estimated version of this model, the U.S. economy is currently suffering from a large and persistent adverse demand shock. Optimal monetary policy absent uncertainty would quickly restore real GDP close to its potential level and allow the inflation rate to rise temporarily above the longer-run target. By contrast, the optimal policy under uncertainty is more muted in its response. As a result, output and inflation return to target levels only gradually. This analysis highlights three important insights for monetary policy under uncertainty. First, even in the presence of considerable uncertainty about the effects of monetary policy, the optimal policy nevertheless responds strongly to shocks: uncertainty does not imply inaction. Second, one cannot simply look at point forecasts and judge whether policy is optimal. Indeed, once one recognizes uncertainty, some moderation in monetary policy may well be optimal. Third, in the context of multiple policy instruments, the optimal strategy is to rely on the instrument associated with the least uncertainty and use alternative, more uncertain instruments only when the least uncertain instrument is employed to its fullest extent possible.

Keywords

Monetary policy

URL

http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2013-15.pdf



Record ID

385     [ Page 30 of 68, No. 2 ]

Date

2013-06

Author

Laurence Ball, Davide Furceri, Daniel Leigh, and Prakash Loungani

Affiliation

Research Department, IMF

Title

The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation

Summary /
Abstract

This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal consolidation. Using episodes of fiscal consolidation for a sample of 17 OECD countries over the period 1978–2009, we find that fiscal consolidation has typically had significant distributional effects by raising inequality, decreasing wage income shares and increasing long-term unemployment. The evidence also suggests that spending-based adjustments have had, on average, larger distributional effects than tax-based adjustments.

Keywords

Fiscal consolidation, distributional effects, income inequality

URL

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13151.pdf



Record ID

384     [ Page 30 of 68, No. 3 ]

Date

2013-03

Author

Leonardo Melosi

Affiliation

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Title

Signaling Effects of Monetary Policy

Summary /
Abstract

We develop a DSGE model in which the policy rate signals to price setters the central bank’s view about macroeconomic developments. The model is estimated with likelihood methods on a U.S. data set that includes the Survey of Professional Forecasters as a measure of price setters’ inflation expectations. We find that the model fits the data better than a prototypical New Keynesian DSGE model because the signaling effects of monetary policy help the model account for the run-up in inflation expectations in the 1970s. The estimated model with signaling effects delivers large and persistent real effects of monetary disturbances even though the average duration of price contracts is fairly short. While the signaling effects do not substantially alter the transmission of technology shocks, they bring about deflationary pressures in the aftermath of positive demand shocks. The signaling effects of monetary policy have contributed (i ) to heightening inflation expectations in the 1970s, (ii ) to raising inflation and to exacerbating the recession during the first years of Volcker’s monetary tightening, and (iii ) to subduing inflation and to stimulating economic activity from 1991 through 2007.

Keywords

Bayesian econometrics; price puzzle; persistent real effects of nominal shocks; imperfect common knowledge; public signal; heterogeneous beliefs

URL

http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:13-029&r=mon



Record ID

383     [ Page 30 of 68, No. 4 ]

Date

2013-05

Author

Dieter Gramlich, Mikhail V. Oet, and Stephen J. Ong

Affiliation

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Title

Policy in adaptive financial markets—the use of systemic risk early warning tools

Summary /
Abstract

How can a systemic risk early warning system (EWS) facilitate the financial stability work of policymakers? In the context of evolving financial market dynamics and limitations of microprudential policy, this study examines new directions for financial macroprudential policy. A flexible macroprudential approach is anchored in strategic capacities of systemic risk EWSs. Tactically, macroprudential applications are founded on information about the level, structure, and institutional drivers of systemic financial stress and aim to manage the financial system risk and imbalances in two dimensions: across time and institutions. Time-related EWS policy applications are analyzed in pursuit of prevention and mitigation. EWS applications across institutions are considered via common exposures and interconnectedness. Care must be taken in the calibration of macroprudential applications, given their reliance on quality of the underlying systemic risk-modeling framework.

Keywords

Business cycles, regulation, financial stability

URL

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/workpaper/2013/wp1309.pdf



Record ID

382     [ Page 30 of 68, No. 5 ]

Date

2013-05

Author

Christiane Baumeister and Lutz Kilian

Affiliation

Bank of Canada and University of Michigan

Title

What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices

Summary /
Abstract

Forecasts of the quarterly real price of oil are routinely used by international organizations and central banks worldwide in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook, yet little is known about how best to generate such forecasts. Our analysis breaks new ground in several dimensions. First, we address a number of econometric and data issues specific to real-time forecasts of quarterly oil prices. Second, we develop real-time forecasting models not only for U.S. benchmarks such as West Texas Intermediate crude oil, but we also develop forecasting models for the price of Brent crude oil, which has become increasingly accepted as the best measure of the global price of oil in recent years. Third, we design for the first time methods for forecasting the real price of oil in foreign consumption units rather than U.S. consumption units, taking the point of view of forecasters outside the United States. In addition, we investigate the costs and benefits of allowing for time variation in vector autoregressive (VAR) model parameters and of constructing forecast combinations. We conclude that quarterly forecasts of the real price of oil from suitably designed VAR models estimated on monthly data generate the most accurate forecasts among a wide range of methods including forecasts based on oil futures prices, no-change forecasts and forecasts based on regression models estimated on quarterly data.

Keywords

Econometric and statistical methods; International topics

URL

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/wp2013-15.pdf



Record ID

381     [ Page 30 of 68, No. 6 ]

Date

2013-06

Author

Paolo Manasse, Roberto Savona and Marika Vezzoli

Affiliation

University of Bologna and IGIER, Bocconi University, and University of Brescia

Title

Rules of Thumb for Banking Crises in Emerging Markets

Summary /
Abstract

This paper employs a recent statistical algorithm (CRAGGING) in order to build an early warning model for banking crises in emerging markets. We perturb our data set many times and create “artificial” samples from which we estimated our model, so that, by construction, it is flexible enough to be applied to new data for out-of-sample prediction. We find that, out of a large number (540) of candidate explanatory variables, from macroeconomic to balance sheet indicators of the countries’ financial sector, we can accurately predict banking crises by just a handful of variables. Using data over the period from 1980 to 2010, the model identifies two basic types of banking crises in emerging markets: a “Latin American type”, resulting from the combination of a (past) credit boom, a flight from domestic assets, and high levels of interest rates on deposits; and an “Asian type”, which is characterized by an investment boom financed by banks’ foreign debt. We compare our model to other models obtained using more traditional techniques, a Stepwise Logit, a Classification Tree, and an “Average” model, and we find that our model strongly dominates the others in terms of out-of-sample predictive power.

Keywords

Banking Crises, Early Warnings, Regression and Classification Trees, Stepwise Logit

URL

ftp://ftp.igier.unibocconi.it/wp/2013/481.pdf



Record ID

380     [ Page 30 of 68, No. 7 ]

Date

2013-06

Author

Bob Hills and Glenn Hoggarth

Affiliation

International Finance Division, Bank of England

Title

Cross-border bank credit and global financial stability

Summary /
Abstract

This article looks in detail at one aspect of global liquidity: cross-border credit provided by banks. Cross-border banking can potentially have considerable benefits, especially by diversifying the available sources of lending and borrowing, and by increasing banking competition. But such flows can also amplify risks in times of stress. As this article sets out, cross-border bank lending contributed to the build-up in vulnerabilities before the recent crisis, and exacerbated the bust once the crisis hit. The article then considers possible policy responses, arguing in particular that policymakers need to ensure that they can properly monitor these flows, from the point of view of recipient countries and the global system as a whole.

Keywords

Cross-border banking, global financial stability

URL

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2013/qb130204.pdf?goback=.gde_2942155_member_251289549



Record ID

379     [ Page 30 of 68, No. 8 ]

Date

2012-12

Author

Daniel Gros and Thorsten Beck

Affiliation

Centre for European Policy Studies and the European Banking Center, Tilburg University

Title

Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision: Coordination Instead of Separation

Summary /
Abstract

Following the June 2012 European Council's decision to place the ‘Single Supervisory Mechanism’ (SSM) within the European Central Bank, the general presumption in the policy discussions has been that there should be ‘Chinese walls’ between the supervisory and monetary policy arms of the ECB. The current legislative proposal, in fact, is explicit on this account. On the contrary, however, this paper finds that there is no need to impose a strict separation between these two functions. The authors argue, in fact, that a strict separation of supervision and monetary policy is not even desirable during a financial crisis when the systemic stability of the financial system represents the biggest threat to a monetary policy that aims at price stability. In their view, the key problem hampering the ECB today is that it lacks detailed information on the state of health of the banking system, which is often highly confidential. Chinese walls would not solve this problem. Moreover, in light of the fact that the new, proposed Supervisory Board will be composed to a large extent of representatives of the same institutions that also dominate the Governing Council, the paper finds that it does not make sense to have Chinese walls between two boards with largely overlapping memberships. In addition, it recommends that some members of the Supervisory Boards should be “independents” in order to reduce the tendency of supervisors to unduly delay the recognition of losses.

Keywords

Monetary Policy, Banking Supervision, Coordination

URL

http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:cepswp:7528&r=mon



Record ID

378     [ Page 30 of 68, No. 9 ]

Date

2012-05

Author

Armand Fouejieu Azangue

Affiliation

LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - Université d'Orléans

Title

Coping with the Recent Financial Crisis, did Inflation Targeting Make Any Difference?

Summary /
Abstract

The 2008/2009 financial crisis hit the real economy, generating one of the greatest global economic shocks. The aim of this study is to investigate whether inflation targeting has made a difference during this crisis. We first present some arguments suggesting that inflation targeters can be expected to do better when facing a global shock. Applying difference in difference in the spirit of Ball and Sheridan (2005), we assess the difference between targeters and non-targeters and find that there is no significant difference concerning inflation rate and GDP growth. However, the rise in interest rates and inflation volatility during the crisis have been significantly less pronounced for targeters.

Keywords

Inflation targeting, financial crisis, macroeconomic performances

URL

http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00826277&r=mon



Record ID

377     [ Page 30 of 68, No. 10 ]

Date

2013-05

Author

William R. Cline

Affiliation

Peterson Institute for International Economics

Title

Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Summary /
Abstract

In this semiannual update, William R. Cline presents new estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs). Once again it is found that the key cases of the United States and China involve only modest over- and undervaluation, respectively. However, the Japanese yen is found to have fallen substantially below its FEER as a consequence of the aggressive quantitative easing policy, and Cline suggests that if the currency continues much further along a downward path, the G-7 may need to consider joint intervention to curb its decline. The study concludes by adding a variant of the calculations in which rich countries are set a floor target of at least a zero current account balance, and emerging market economies are set a ceiling target of zero balance. In this "aggressive rebalancing" in which capital would no longer flow "uphill" from poor to rich countries, the US dollar would require a much larger depreciation and the Chinese renminbi a much larger appreciation.

Keywords

FEERs, G-7, zero current account balance, capital flows

URL

http://www.piie.com/publications/pb/pb13-15.pdf



Total records: 676 | Select no. of records per page: 10 | 20 | 30 | 50 | 100 | Show all | Search
Select a Page:   << Previous  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 Next >>



Copyright ©2010-2013 Web development and maintenance by Ferdinand S. Co | Updated by: Dan Villanueva