Selected Reference and Reading Materials compiled by Dan Villanueva


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Record ID

569     [ Page 13 of 68, No. 1 ]

Date

2014-10

Author

Aladangady, Aditya

Affiliation

Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

Title

Homeowner Balance Sheets and Monetary Policy

Summary /
Abstract

This paper empirically identifies an important channel through which monetary policy affects consumer spending: homeowner balance sheets. A monetary loosening increases home values, thereby strengthening homeowner balance sheets and stimulating household spending due to a combination of collateral and wealth effects. The magnitude of these effects on a given household depends on local housing market characteristics such as local geography and regulation. Cities with the largest geographic and regulatory barriers to new construction see 3-4 percent responses in real house prices compared with unconstrained, elastic-supply cities where construction holds prices in check. Using non-public geocoded microdata from the Consumer Expenditures Survey, house price and consumption responses are compared across areas differing in local land availability and zoning laws to identify a marginal propensity to consume out of housing of 0.07. Homeowners with debt service ratios in the highest quartile have MPCs as high as 0.14 compared with negligible responses for those with low debt service ratios. This indicates a strong role for collateral effects, as opposed to pure wealth effects, in driving the relationship between home values and spending. I discuss the implications of these results for the aggregate effects and regional heterogeneity in responses to monetary shocks.

Keywords

Consumption; housing; wealth effects; collateral; home equity; monetary policy

URL

http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2014/files/201498pap.pdf



Record ID

568     [ Page 13 of 68, No. 2 ]

Date

2014-12

Author

Dudley, William

Affiliation

President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Title

The 2015 economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy

Summary /
Abstract

Remarks at Bernard M. Baruch College, New York City.

Keywords

2015 outlook, monetary policy

URL

http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2014/dud141201.html



Record ID

567     [ Page 13 of 68, No. 3 ]

Date

2013-12

Author

Michael D. Bordo

Affiliation

Bank for International Settlements

Title

The Federal Reserve's Role: Actions Before, During, and After the 2008 Panic in the Historical Context of the Great Contraction

Summary /
Abstract

This paper examines the Federal Reserve's actions before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. It looks to the Great Contraction of 1929-1933 for historical context of the Federal Reserve’s actions.

Keywords

Monetary policy, 2008 panic, historical context

URL

http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/13111_-_bordo_-_the_federal_reserves_role_-_actions_before_during_and_after_the_2008_panic_in_the_historical_context_of_the_great_contraction.pdf



Record ID

566     [ Page 13 of 68, No. 4 ]

Date

2013-03

Author

John B. Taylor

Affiliation

Department of Economics, Stanford University

Title

Remarks on Monetary Policy Challenges

Summary /
Abstract

This talk is the written version of remarks, given at a conference marking the retirement of Mervyn King from the Bank of England. It argues that economic performance deteriorated in recent years because of a change in policy rather than because of a shift in the tradeoff between inflation stability and output stability.

Keywords

Monetary policy, challenges, inflation targeting

URL

http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/13105_-_taylor_-_remarks_on_monetary_policy_challenges.pdf



Record ID

565     [ Page 13 of 68, No. 5 ]

Date

2014-11

Author

Michael Bordo and Pierre Siklos

Affiliation

National Bureau of Economic Research

Title

Central Bank Credibility, Reputation and Inflation Targeting in Historical Perspective

Summary /
Abstract

This paper examines the historical evolution of central bank credibility using both historical narrative and empirics for a group of 16 countries, both advanced and emerging. It shows how the evolution of credibility has gone through a pendulum where credibility was high under the classical gold standard before 1914 before being lost and not fully regained until the 1980s. This characterization does not, however, seem to apply to the monetary history in the emerging markets examined in the paper. Nevertheless, credibility in all the economies examined has been enhanced in recent decades thanks to the adoption of inflation targeting. However, the recent financial crisis and the call for central banks to focus more on financial stability relying on macro prudential regulation may pose significant challenges for central bank credibility.

Keywords

Credibility, Inflation Targeting, Monetary Policy

Remarks

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Record ID

564     [ Page 13 of 68, No. 6 ]

Date

2013-03

Author

John B. Taylor

Affiliation

Department of Economics, Stanford University

Title

A Review of Recent Monetary Policy

Summary /
Abstract

This testimony before the Subcommittee on Monetary Policy and Trade of the United States House of Representatives reviews the conduct of the Federal Reserve before, during, and after the 2008 financial crisis.

Keywords

U.S. monetary policy, global financial crisis

URL

http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/13103_-_taylor_a_review_of_recent_monetary_policy.pdf



Record ID

563     [ Page 13 of 68, No. 7 ]

Date

2014-11

Author

Del Negro, Marco and Sims, Christopher A.

Affiliation

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Title

When does a central bank’s balance sheet require fiscal support?

Summary /
Abstract

Using a simple general equilibrium model, we argue that it would be appropriate for a central bank with a large balance sheet composed of long-duration nominal assets to have access to, and be willing to ask for, support for its balance sheet by the fiscal authority. Otherwise its ability to control inflation may be at risk. This need for balance sheet support—a within-government transaction—is distinct from the need for fiscal backing of inflation policy that arises even in models where the central bank’s balance sheet is merged with that of the rest of the government.

Keywords

Central bank’s balance sheet; solvency; monetary policy

URL

http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr701.pdf



Record ID

562     [ Page 13 of 68, No. 8 ]

Date

2014-11

Author

Vikram Rai and Lena Suchanek

Affiliation

Bank of Canada

Title

The Effect of the Federal Reserve’s Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets

Summary /
Abstract

The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) program has been accompanied by a flow of funds into emerging-market economies (EMEs) in search of higher returns. When Federal Reserve officials first mentioned an eventual slowdown and end of purchases under the central bank’s QE program in May and June 2013, foreign investors started to withdraw some of these funds, leading to capital outflows, a drop in EME currencies and stock markets, and a rise in bond yields. Using an event-study approach, this paper estimates the impact of “Fed tapering” on EME financial markets and capital flows for 19 EMEs. Results suggest that EMEs with strong fundamentals (e.g., stronger growth and current account position, lower debt, and higher growth in business confidence and productivity), saw more favourable responses to Fed communications on tapering. Capital account openness initially played a role as well, but diminished in importance in subsequent tapering announcements.

Keywords

International financial markets; Transmission of monetary policy; International topics

URL

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/wp2014-50.pdf



Record ID

561     [ Page 13 of 68, No. 9 ]

Date

2014-12

Author

Jiaqian Chen, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, and Ratna Sahay

Affiliation

Money and Capital Markets Department, IMF

Title

Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets: Different This Time?

Summary /
Abstract

The impact of monetary policy in large advanced countries on emerging market economies—dubbed spillovers—is hotly debated in global and national policy circles. When the U.S. resorted to unconventional monetary policy, spillovers on asset prices and capital flows were significant, though remained smaller in countries with better fundamentals. This was not because monetary policy shocks changed (in size, sign or impact on stance). In fact, the traditional signaling channel of monetary policy continued to play the leading role in transmitting shocks, relative to other channels, affecting longer-term bond yields. Instead, we find that larger spillovers stem more from structural factors, such as the use of new instruments (asset purchases). We obtain these results by developing a new methodology to extract, separate, and interpret U.S. monetary policy shocks.

Keywords

Monetary policy announcements, unconventional monetary policies, spillovers, capital flows, equity markets, bond markets, exchange rates, emerging markets.

URL

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2014/wp14240.pdf



Record ID

560     [ Page 13 of 68, No. 10 ]

Date

2014-10

Author

Nikolaos Antonakakis

Affiliation

Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business

Title

Sovereign Debt and Economic Growth Revisited: The Role of (Non-)Sustainable Debt Thresholds

Summary /
Abstract

Contributing to the contentious debate on the relationship between sovereign debt and economic growth, I examine the role of theory-driven (non-)sustainable debt-ratios in combination with debt-ratio thresholds on economic growth. Based on both dynamic and non-dynamic panel data analyses in the euro area (EA) 12 countries over the period 1970-2013, I find that non-sustainable debt-ratios above and below the 60% threshold, have a detrimental effect on short-run economic growth, while sustainable debt-ratios below the 90% threshold exert a positive influence on short-run economic growth. In the long-run, both non-sustainable and sustainable debt-ratios above the 90% threshold, as well as non-sustainable debt-ratios below the 60% compromise economic growth. Robustness analysis supports these findings, and provides additional evidence of a positive effect of sustainable debt-ratios below the 60% threshold, as predicated by the Maastricht Treaty criterion, on (short- and long-run) economic growth. Overall, these results suggest that debt sustainability in addition to debt non-linearities should be considered simultaneously in the debt-growth nexus. In addition, the results indicate the importance of a timely reaction of fiscal policy in countries with non-sustainable debts, as implied by fiscal rules, in an attempt to ensure fiscal sustainability and, ultimately, promote long-run economic growth.

Keywords

Government debt, growth, sustainability, threshold, government budget constraint

URL

https://epub.wu.ac.at/4321/1/wp187.pdf



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