Selected Reference and Reading Materials compiled by Dan Villanueva


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Record ID

599     [ Page 10 of 68, No. 1 ]

Date

2015-03

Author

James Bullard

Affiliation

President and CEO, FRB, St. Louis

Title

U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization

Summary /
Abstract

I considered five factors weighing on the decision to begin normalizing monetary policy:

Labor markets are likely to continue to improve.

Real GDP growth will likely continue apace despite a first-quarter slowdown.

Current low inflation in the U.S. is likely temporary.

A standard Taylor-type rule suggests liftoff should already have occurred.

The risks of remaining at zero too long may be substantial.

Keywords

Normalization of U.S. monetary policy

URL

https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/remarks/Bullard-OMFIF-City-Lecture-Frankfurt-26-March-2015.pdf



Record ID

598     [ Page 10 of 68, No. 2 ]

Date

2015-04

Author

Andrés Fernández, Michael W. Klein, Alessandro Rebucci, Martin Schindler, and Martin Uribe

Affiliation

Institute for Capacity Development, IMF

Title

Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset

Summary /
Abstract

This paper presents a new dataset of capital control restrictions on both inflows and outflows of 10 categories of assets for 100 countries over the period 1995 to 2013. Building on the data in Schindler (2009) and other datasets based on the analysis of the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER), this dataset includes additional asset categories, more countries, and a longer time period. The paper discusses in detail the construction of the dataset and characterizes the data with respect to the prevalence and correlation of controls across asset categories and between controls on inflows and controls on outflows, the aggregation of the separate categories into broader indicators, and the comparison of this dataset with other indicators of capital controls.

Keywords

Capital control measures, capital flows; international financial integration

URL

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1580.pdf



Record ID

597     [ Page 10 of 68, No. 3 ]

Date

2014-10

Author

John C. Williams

Affiliation

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Title

Inflation targeting and the global financial crisis: successes and challenges

Summary /
Abstract

Inflation targeting has become the predominant monetary approach across the globe. In a very real sense, “we are all inflation targeters now.” Before, during, and after the financial crisis, nearly all central banks following an inflation-targeting approach—whether explicit or implicit—have been highly successful at achieving price stability and anchoring inflation expectations. Recent events, however, highlighted two critical issues for inflation targeting going forward: the constraint of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and the appropriate role of monetary policy in supporting financial stability. This has led to the development of alternative approaches to inflation targeting that offer, in theory, potential advantages with respect to the zero lower bound and financial stability.

Keywords

Inflation targeting, global financial crisis, zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, financial stability

URL

http://www.frbsf.org/our-district/press/presidents-speeches/williams-speeches/2014/october/inflation-targeting-global-financial-crisis/SARB-2014-Williams_Web_PDF-final.pdf



Record ID

596     [ Page 10 of 68, No. 4 ]

Date

2015-04

Author

Ravi Balakrishnan, Mai Dao, Juan Sole, and Jeremy Zook

Affiliation

Western Hemisphere Department, IMF

Title

Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?

Summary /
Abstract

The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell dramatically following the Great Recession and has yet to start recovering. A key question is how much of the post-2007 decline is reversible, something which is central to the policy debate. The key finding of this paper is that while around ¼–? of the post-2007 decline is reversible, the LFPR will continue to decline given population aging. This paper’s measure of the “employment gap” also suggests that labor market slack remains and will only decline gradually, pointing to a still important role for stimulative macro-economic policies to help reach full employment. In addition, given the continued downward pressure on the LFPR, labor supply measures will be an essential component of the strategy to boost potential growth. Finally, stimulative macroeconomic and labor supply policies should also help reduce the scope for further hysteresis effects to develop (e.g., loss of skills, discouragement).

Keywords

Labor force participation; unemployment; employment gap; macro-economic policy

URL

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1576.pdf



Record ID

595     [ Page 10 of 68, No. 5 ]

Date

2015-03

Author

Serhan Cevik and Carolina Correa-Caro

Affiliation

Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF

Title

Growing (Un)equal: Fiscal Policy and Income Inequality in China and BRIC+

Summary /
Abstract

This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of income inequality in China and a panel of BRIC+ countries over the period 1980–2013, with a focus on the redistributive contribution of fiscal policy. Using instrumental variable techniques to deal with potential endogeneity, we find evidence supporting the hypothesis of the existence of a Kuznets curve—an inverted Ushaped relationship between income inequality and economic development—in China and the panel of BRIC+ countries. In the case of China, the empirical results indicate that government spending and taxation have opposing effects on income inequality. While government spending appears to have a worsening impact, taxation improves income distribution. Even though the redistributive effect of fiscal policy in China appears to be stronger than what we identify in the BRIC+ panel, it is not large enough to compensate for the adverse impact of other influential factors.

Keywords

Income distribution, income inequality, fiscal policy

URL

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1568.pdf



Record ID

594     [ Page 10 of 68, No. 6 ]

Date

2014-05

Author

Sinclair, Peter and Sun, Lixn

Affiliation

University of Birmingham and Shandong University

Title

A DSGE Model for China’s Monetary and Macroprudential Policies

Summary /
Abstract

This paper develops a calibrated DSGE model for simulating China’s monetary policy and macroprudential policy. The empirical results show, first, that the interest rate is a better instrument for China’s monetary policy than the required reserve ratio when the central bank is solely concerned by the price stability; second, that the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is a very useful macroprudential tool for China’s financial stability, and the required reserve ratio could be used as an instrument for both objectives. Whether macroprudential policy complements or conflicts with monetary policy depends upon the instruments choices of two policies. Our policy experiments suggest three combination choices of instruments for China’s monetary and macroprudential policies.

Keywords

DSGE Model, Monetary Policy, Macroprudental Policy, China’s Economy

URL

http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62580/1/MPRA_paper_62580.pdf



Record ID

593     [ Page 10 of 68, No. 7 ]

Date

2015-03

Author

Michal Andrle, Patrick Blagrave, Keiko Honjo, Ben Hunt, Mika Kortelainen, René Lalonde, Douglas Laxton, Dirk Muir, Susanna Mursula, and Stephen Snudden

Affiliation

Research Department, IMF

Title

The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM

Summary /
Abstract

The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structural global model consisting of 24 regions. Using the three core modules focused on the G-20, the euro area, and emerging market economies, this paper outlines the theory under-pinning the model, and illustrates its macroeconomic properties by presenting its responses under a wide range of experiments, including monetary, financial, demand, supply, fiscal and international shocks.

Keywords

Monetary policy; fiscal policy; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; macroeconomic interdependence

URL

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1564.pdf



Record ID

592     [ Page 10 of 68, No. 8 ]

Date

2015-03

Author

Policy Development and Review Department

Affiliation

International Monetary Fund

Title

IMF Review Weighs How to Harness Trade for Growth

Summary /
Abstract

This review follows the Board-endorsed recommendation by the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) in 2009 to have an assessment of the Fund’s work on trade every five years. In addition to reviewing past work, this paper discusses key issues going forward towards a future trade agenda for the next five years. This reflects the need to operationalize the implications of the changing trade landscape, including the changing drivers of trade — such as global value chains (GVCs) — and the movement of the fulcrum of trade policy from multilateral rounds to regional and plurilateral deals.

Keywords

Trade, global, regional, plurilateral, multilateral.

URL

http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2015/020215.pdf



Record ID

591     [ Page 10 of 68, No. 9 ]

Date

2014-02

Author

Hürtgen, Patrick and Cloyne, James

Affiliation

Bank of England

Title

The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy: A new measure for the United Kingdom

Summary /
Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy on the UK economy based on a new, extensive real-time forecast data set. Employing the Romer Romer identification approach we first construct a new measure of monetary policy innovations for the UK economy. We find that a one percentage point increase in the policy rate reduces output by up to 0.6 per cent and inflation by up to 1.0 percentage point after two to three years. Our approach resolves the price puzzle for the UK and we show that forecasts are crucial for this result. Finally, we show that the response of policy after the initial innovation is crucial for interpreting estimates of the effect of monetary policy. We can then reconcile differences across empirical specifications, with the wider VAR literature and between our UK results and the larger narrative estimates for the US.

Keywords

Monetary policy, narrative identification, real-time forecasts, business cycles

URL

http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/100304/1/VfS_2014_pid_401.pdf



Record ID

590     [ Page 10 of 68, No. 10 ]

Date

2015-01

Author

Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas and David Perez-Reyna

Affiliation

Banco de la Republica Colombia

Title

A Survey on the Effects of Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention

Summary /
Abstract

In this paper we survey prominent theories that have shaped the literature on sterilized foreign exchange interventions. We identify three main strands of literature: 1) that which advocates the use of sterilized interventions; 2) that which deems sterilized interventions futile; and 3) that which requires some market friction in order for sterilized interventions to be effective. We contribute to the literature in three important ways. First, by reviewing new theoretical models that have surfaced within the last decade. Second, by further penetrating into the theory of interventions in order to analyze the key features that make each model distinct. And third, by only focusing on sterilized operations, which allows us to sidestep the effects induced by changes in the stock of money supply. Additionally, the models that we present comprise both a macro and micro-structure approach so as to provide a comprehensive view of the theory behind exchange rate intervention.

Keywords

Sterilized foreign exchange intervention, impossible trinity, portfolio balance channel, signaling channel, uncovered interest rate parity.

URL

http://www.banrep.gov.co/sites/default/files/publicaciones/archivos/be_862.pdf



Total records: 676 | Select no. of records per page: 10 | 20 | 30 | 50 | 100 | Show all | Search
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