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Record ID
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600
[ Page 10 of 68, No. 1 ]
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Date
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2015-04 |
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Author
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Potter, Simon M.
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Affiliation
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Executive Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
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Title
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Money markets and monetary policy normalization |
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Summary /
Abstract
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My comments today will focus on the Federal Reserve's readiness to implement policy firming when directed to do so by the FOMC. In this context, I will discuss the Federal Reserve's ongoing refinement of its approach to policy normalization, with a focus on initial steps to leave the zero lower bound and some of the considerations that have directed the Committee away from a fixed-rate, full-allotment ON RRP facility. I will then review results of our testing, which inform our confidence in that approach. I will also discuss the Federal Reserve's flexibility to adapt its operational and analytical tools to the dynamic nature of the markets in which we operate. |
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Keywords
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Policy normalization: System Open Market Account (SOMA); Open Market Trading Desk; overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP); interest on excess reserve balances (IOER); desk; flexibility; investment capacity; testing; data collection; liftoff |
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URL
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http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2015/pot150415.html
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Record ID
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598
[ Page 10 of 68, No. 3 ]
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Date
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2015-04 |
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Author
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Andrés Fernández, Michael W. Klein, Alessandro Rebucci, Martin Schindler, and Martin Uribe
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Affiliation
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Institute for Capacity Development, IMF |
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Title
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Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset |
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Summary /
Abstract
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This paper presents a new dataset of capital control restrictions on both inflows and outflows of 10 categories of assets for 100 countries over the period 1995 to 2013. Building on the data in Schindler (2009) and other datasets based on the analysis of the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER), this dataset includes additional asset categories, more countries, and a longer time period. The paper discusses in detail the construction of the dataset and characterizes the data with respect to the prevalence and correlation of controls across asset categories and between controls on inflows and controls on outflows, the aggregation of the separate categories into broader indicators, and the comparison of this dataset with other indicators of capital controls. |
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Keywords
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Capital control measures, capital flows; international financial integration |
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URL
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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1580.pdf
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Record ID
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597
[ Page 10 of 68, No. 4 ]
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Date
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2014-10 |
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Author
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John C. Williams
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Affiliation
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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco |
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Title
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Inflation targeting and the global financial crisis: successes and challenges |
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Summary /
Abstract
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Inflation targeting has become the predominant monetary approach across the globe. In a very real sense, “we are all inflation targeters now.” Before, during, and after the financial crisis, nearly all central banks following an inflation-targeting approach—whether explicit or implicit—have been highly successful at achieving price stability and anchoring inflation expectations. Recent events, however, highlighted two critical issues for inflation targeting going forward: the constraint of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and the appropriate role of monetary policy in supporting financial stability. This has led to the development of alternative approaches to inflation targeting that offer, in theory, potential advantages with respect to the zero lower bound and financial stability. |
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Keywords
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Inflation targeting, global financial crisis, zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, financial stability |
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URL
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http://www.frbsf.org/our-district/press/presidents-speeches/williams-speeches/2014/october/inflation-targeting-global-financial-crisis/SARB-2014-Williams_Web_PDF-final.pdf
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Record ID
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596
[ Page 10 of 68, No. 5 ]
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Date
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2015-04 |
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Author
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Ravi Balakrishnan, Mai Dao, Juan Sole, and Jeremy Zook
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Affiliation
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Western Hemisphere Department, IMF |
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Title
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Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not? |
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Summary /
Abstract
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The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell dramatically following the Great Recession and has yet to start recovering. A key question is how much of the post-2007 decline is reversible, something which is central to the policy debate. The key finding of this paper is that while around ¼–? of the post-2007 decline is reversible, the LFPR will continue to decline given population aging. This paper’s measure of the “employment gap” also suggests that labor market slack remains and will only decline gradually, pointing to a still important role for stimulative macro-economic policies to help reach full employment. In addition, given the continued downward pressure on the LFPR, labor supply measures will be an essential component of the strategy to boost potential growth. Finally, stimulative macroeconomic and labor supply policies should also help reduce the scope for further hysteresis effects to develop (e.g., loss of skills, discouragement). |
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Keywords
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Labor force participation; unemployment; employment gap; macro-economic policy |
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URL
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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1576.pdf
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Record ID
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595
[ Page 10 of 68, No. 6 ]
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Date
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2015-03 |
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Author
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Serhan Cevik and Carolina Correa-Caro
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Affiliation
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Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF |
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Title
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Growing (Un)equal: Fiscal Policy and Income Inequality in China and BRIC+ |
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Summary /
Abstract
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This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of income inequality in China and a panel of BRIC+ countries over the period 1980–2013, with a focus on the redistributive contribution of fiscal policy. Using instrumental variable techniques to deal with potential endogeneity, we find evidence supporting the hypothesis of the existence of a Kuznets curve—an inverted Ushaped relationship between income inequality and economic development—in China and the panel of BRIC+ countries. In the case of China, the empirical results indicate that government spending and taxation have opposing effects on income inequality. While government spending appears to have a worsening impact, taxation improves income distribution. Even though the redistributive effect of fiscal policy in China appears to be stronger than what we identify in the BRIC+ panel, it is not large enough to compensate for the adverse impact of other influential factors. |
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Keywords
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Income distribution, income inequality, fiscal policy |
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URL
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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1568.pdf
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Record ID
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594
[ Page 10 of 68, No. 7 ]
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Date
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2014-05 |
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Author
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Sinclair, Peter and Sun, Lixn
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Affiliation
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University of Birmingham and Shandong University |
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Title
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A DSGE Model for China’s Monetary and Macroprudential Policies |
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Summary /
Abstract
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This paper develops a calibrated DSGE model for simulating China’s monetary policy and macroprudential policy. The empirical results show, first, that the interest rate is a better instrument for China’s monetary policy than the required reserve ratio when the central bank is solely concerned by the price stability; second, that the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is a very useful macroprudential tool for China’s financial stability, and the required reserve ratio could be used as an instrument for both objectives. Whether macroprudential policy complements or conflicts with monetary policy depends upon the instruments choices of two policies. Our policy experiments suggest three combination choices of instruments for China’s monetary and macroprudential policies. |
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Keywords
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DSGE Model, Monetary Policy, Macroprudental Policy, China’s Economy |
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URL
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http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62580/1/MPRA_paper_62580.pdf
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Record ID
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593
[ Page 10 of 68, No. 8 ]
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Date
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2015-03 |
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Author
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Michal Andrle, Patrick Blagrave, Keiko Honjo, Ben Hunt, Mika Kortelainen, René Lalonde, Douglas Laxton, Dirk Muir, Susanna Mursula, and Stephen Snudden
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Affiliation
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Research Department, IMF |
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Title
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The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM |
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Summary /
Abstract
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The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structural global model consisting of 24 regions. Using the three core modules focused on the G-20, the euro area, and emerging market economies, this paper outlines the theory under-pinning the model, and illustrates its macroeconomic properties by presenting its responses under a wide range of experiments, including monetary, financial, demand, supply, fiscal and international shocks. |
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Keywords
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Monetary policy; fiscal policy; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; macroeconomic interdependence |
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URL
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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1564.pdf
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Record ID
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592
[ Page 10 of 68, No. 9 ]
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Date
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2015-03 |
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Author
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Policy Development and Review Department
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Affiliation
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International Monetary Fund |
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Title
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IMF Review Weighs How to Harness Trade for Growth |
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Summary /
Abstract
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This review follows the Board-endorsed recommendation by the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) in 2009 to have an assessment of the Fund’s work on trade every five years. In addition to reviewing past work, this paper discusses key issues going forward towards a future trade agenda for the next five years. This reflects the need to operationalize the implications of the changing trade landscape, including the changing drivers of trade — such as global value chains (GVCs) — and the movement of the fulcrum of trade policy from multilateral rounds to regional and plurilateral deals. |
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Keywords
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Trade, global, regional, plurilateral, multilateral. |
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URL
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http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2015/020215.pdf
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Record ID
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591
[ Page 10 of 68, No. 10 ]
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Date
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2014-02 |
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Author
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Hürtgen, Patrick and Cloyne, James
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Affiliation
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Bank of England |
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Title
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The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy: A new measure for the United Kingdom |
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Summary /
Abstract
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This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy on the UK economy based on a new, extensive real-time forecast data set. Employing the Romer Romer identification approach we first construct a new measure of monetary policy innovations for the UK economy. We find that a one percentage point increase in the policy rate reduces output by up to 0.6 per cent and inflation by up to 1.0 percentage point after two to three years. Our approach resolves the price puzzle for the UK and we show that forecasts are crucial for this result. Finally, we show that the response of policy after the initial innovation is crucial for interpreting estimates of the effect of monetary policy. We can then reconcile differences across empirical specifications, with the wider VAR literature and between our UK results and the larger narrative estimates for the US. |
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Keywords
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Monetary policy, narrative identification, real-time forecasts, business cycles |
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URL
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http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/100304/1/VfS_2014_pid_401.pdf
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